Friday 30 October 2015

Income and expenditure

The department of Statistics has projected an increase of 10 million people in the UK in the next 10 years.
On the one hand we can expect an influx of people into our cities both from immigration and from the increasing birth rate, mainly from the immigrant population. An increase, the size of which compares to another Greater London.
Whist we 'debate' the issue, of immigration and the high birth rate of the new arrives, we already confront  the multiple problems of a current housing crisis, an unwillingness to alleviate already overcrowded schools and a lack of 'political will' to come to terms with a properly funded NHS. How the hell are we going to manage this increase in the population in the future ?

Tinkering around the edges, kicking the problem into the deep grass or simply denying there will be a problem and trying to muddle through, will not be enough.
Our economy is massively lopsided and in terms of investment, undernourished. 
We have a psychological, almost  pathological abhorrence of taxes to balance our expenditure and see the solution, much as the old thrifty Scotsman, would by drawing in on our expenditure. Unfortunately the draw-down has been targeted on welfare.
In most business' the tension on the balance sheet is not serving 'expansion and growth' through profits but rather through borrowings and it's the source and type of borrowing which measures the success of the company. 
Borrowing is therefore a part of the business cycle and especially so when interest rates are so low. Now is the time when we should be equipping industry with the latest machinery, now is the time when we should be modernising the countries infrastructure   But no, like the Dickens' character  Micawber, who's maxim, the recipe for happiness, "annual income 20 pounds annual expenditure 19 pounds nineteen shillings and sixpence" was the linch pin for the household budget. 
How Mr Osborn would rue the day if individually we all went back to such careful bookkeeping. Instead he charges 'us' with running up our expenditure through debt to fuel the consumer reliant economy by offering all kinds of, buy now pay later schemes.
Perhaps if he laid off the 'acutely poor' and spread the burden by reducing our expenditure on imported goods, since we manufacture so little these days. 
If we were encouraged to save. If we were encouraged to pay 'ring fenced' specifically targeted 'taxes' to help pay for the extra housing, improved schooling and a properly funded NHS, then we could achieve a fairer more equitable balanced economy. Provided of course that borrowings are transferred from domestic expenditure to  improving and modernising, not only our infrastructure but encouraging, through financial incentives, the replacement of the old run down manufacturing equipment which has become the norm throughout the country.
It's not rocket science but it has to have a 'commitment' which doesn't rely on the Market.
The Market is short term and we have a long term problem.
It's no use teasing the Chinese with mouthwatering returns on investment by burdening the domestic user with massively inflated electricity prices. 
One of the main reasons for the demise of the steel industry has been the cost of our electricity at current day prices. We have by far the highest electricity costs in the EU and since energy is the staple diet of most industries and one of the main contributors to the unit cost, it's no wonder we are uncompetitive.
Our shadowing the Americans and placing such a reliance on the Market does not take into account the massive advantage the Americans have with their dollar holdings across the globe which allows them to run huge current account deficits, deficits which would bankrupt any other country.
With Uriah 'Osborn' Heep  running the show and  with so much political short-termism around, we continue to dig an ever deeper hole for ourselves.

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