Thursday 26 May 2016

Just don't bang on my box

The more one reads and listens to the commentators speak, talking about the Global financial system the more one realises that we are all in trouble.
The imbalances and the breakdown of the method of recycling these imbalances across the financial world (starting with the de-linking of the dollar from gold by Nixon) has not only inflated the money supply as countries seek to stimulate their economies by printing money through Quantitative Easing, producing a massive deflation across the board and the reason why we now hear quoted the word trillion rather than billion or the old fashioned term million when ever profits turnover or expenditure generally is mentioned.
Our psychological adjustment to hearing revenue and expenditure of over a trillion is not really matched by the realisation that our pay, staying somewhat fixed as interest rates and specifically public sector wages continue to be held with no increase in sight, in effect, means a decrease in spending power as consumer goods and food continue to rise. Of course this fact is hidden amongst the credit card records as we offset our decline by borrowing more.
The rising stars of the last decade China,  Brazil even the EU have to varying degrees faltered. Although in the case of China their war chest of trillions of dollars in surpluses and their still superior GDP 6% means that whilst the country is still earning massively,  because it exports to a less wealthy world and the spending on infrastructure, almost mind boggling compared to virtually anyone else (18 Nuclear Plants under construction whilst we worry if we can afford 1.) there are storm clouds ahead due to political consequences of a slow down in the modernisation of this largely rural and backward country.

When ever you tune into Blomberg they have the almost unabated scenario of economises slowing down and debt building. They become shrill when Apple who posted profits of $18 billion for the first quarter last year and 18.4 billion in the first quarter of this year, on revenues of $74 billion, are now expecting  the revenue to fall to $54 billion in the second quarter and profits to a measly 14 billion. The end of the world is neigh !!  $14 billion profit becomes a problem. Perhaps as a comparative reflecting a slow down across the board but then comparatives are dangerous.
Of course under laying the concern is the fact that the banks still have the boogie man of under valued mortgage assets on their balance sheets (parked off the balance sheet) which undermine their own true value. Given that inter bank lending is based on sentiment and confidence, another Lehman Brothers is most likely. Can the politicians again rob the taxpayer, asking them to bail out this private enterprise which is quasi integrated with a countries commerce that it should be controlled by government but, as we have seen, the politicians failed us all and allowed the banks to continue as before, this time with "our" money and "our" guarantees.
There are fewer bullets to fire with interest rates at close to zero and so when the tipping point approaches only QE, which itself only postpones the inevitable, and will have less and less of an effect is then available and at some time a seismic event will occur.
There are so many elements in play as we continue to postpone righting our bloated dysfunctional economies.
Lowering living standards, removing entitlement, curbing population growth, dismembering the elite and their schools, curbing the market and making capitalism more accountable, all these concepts are in the melting pot in one way or another and only the strong will survive.
Just don't bang on my box when I'm 6' under.

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