Friday, 1 May 2020

And what afterwards



Subject: And what afterwards.

Fully engrossed with the vagaries of the Covid 19 pandemic we have taken our eye off what might be a greater threat, the economic downturn which will arise because of it.
It's an almost unique set of circumstances. Demand remains the same for goods and services but the economy can't respond because the workers are restrained from going in to work. The effect on the mechanism to produce things, including the services people expect to buy will, if the pandemic continues from weeks into months hobble  all the players, the manufactures and the small businesses, the shops, the restaurants and the cafes, crushing them and the skills which brought them into life in the first place.
The financial weight needed to support this devastated economy has to come in the first instance from a government supported banking sector, still recovering from the banking crash in 2008. Their balance sheets are stretched globally these days and the pandemic is no respecter of boarders so the economic damage is spread across each country sapping everyone equally. Unfortunately the banks are not known for being the best vehicle to get the money to the cash strapped business or employee. They were given billions to stimulate the 2008 economy but made it as difficult for borrowers to get loans and instead used the money to refinance their balance sheet.
What will this country look like in a years time.
In 1930 the Great Depression was a man-made catastrophe in which nations put up financial barriers,tarrifs, against each other and drove employment off a cliff. Consumption of everything plummeted and a spiral set in motion which lasted until an economic base line was reached and governments were forced to become proactive. Keynesian economics was born by central bank intervention through stimulus packages, targeted at certain sections of the industrial and retail infrastructure.
Today we are familiar with central bank intervention, interventions made so much easier by having a floating exchange rate to hide the ramifications of their policy. In the 1930s the stranglehold of a fixed exchange rate, tied to the price of gold, meant that agreements had to be obtained across nations, where possible so they could act in concert.
One advantage of a fixed exchange rate was you could measure your solvency.
Today it's hard to say where we are in terms of solvency given our level of debt which has been climbing for decades but the debt was seen necessary to fuel our insatiable consumerism.

 The printing presses serving Thread needle Street, turn out a currency which, unlike in the 1930s, has no asset base, only a promise to pay the bearer, themselves a collection of shady oil Sheiks and off-shore fortunes made in the nefarious plunder of national assets.
On a more plebeian level, without a job how does the rent get paid and food appear on the table. The government (you and I) have guaranteed 80% of the wages/salaries to those currently in work, the so called furlough payment but for how long can the Exchequer be expected to keep this up given that on the other side of the balance sheet the country needs an income gained from taxes levied in part on those now furloughed. It's a conundrum.
The concept of paying a proper living wage for the life time of a person who has been displaced by 'AI' led  robots was mooted, leading to a sort of sub class, an extension of the Welfare Class who's current opportunities are governed by their consumption of the Big Mac and not the funds required to educate them properly.
Given the optimism, people will bounce back. It might not be the same people but a rash of new people full of new ideas. Our 21st century complacency might be replaced, if enough pain is inflicted on a less cocky assumption of rights. Perhaps even a return to that characterisation where we are judged on an acceptance of our responsibilities

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