Tuesday 22 October 2019

As America withdraws


Subject: As America withdraws.

As America continues to withdraw from its role of being the World policeman, the question arises, what will the landscape become as all the old antagonists square up to each other once again, able to return to their normal antagonism without the policeman keeping them apart. Will the world take up its fragmented hostility. 


On the Turkish boarder with Syria, the presence of a few hundred American troops persuaded Mr Erdogan, the Turkish president not to risk spilling American blood in his vendetta against the Kurds but Donald Trumps hasty decision to bring his soldiers home has prompted an immediate response from Turkey by shelling the predominately Kurdish towns over the Syrian boarder and releasing his troops in an attack into Syria.
Will Syria or her backer Russia react, claiming the need to repulse an invasion of Syria and how will the delicate balance between the conflicting forces in the Middle East also react. 
All over the Asian world, the Americans, in part from the legacy of their Second World War exploits, have been a countervailing force against some of the geopolitical forces in the region. Korea, Taiwan even China and Japan have seen the American military might play its part in their calculations. If under Trump all is withdrawn under the isolationist policy he is pursuing, a policy his voters support  since, in their eyes, the world is a distant place, especially to people living in Idaho or Nebraska where the enormous cost of keeping a presence in the world is resented when money is short on the infrastructure at home.
At least in Europe the nationalistic triumphalism of the past is unlikely to reemerge whilst the Union offers some sort of organised economic advantage but in the Mediterranean countries the benefits of union are looking especially thin and with the UK leaving it provides the excuse for these countries to look elsewhere and think of decoupling  themselves from the Commissions bureaucracy.
For 70 years we have had relative stability in the West, whilst other parts of the world bickered, but it came at a cost, born mainly by the Americans. The cost was offset by the massive fiscal hegemony gained by the Dollar (having taken over from the Pound Stirling) not only as it became the leading trading currency but also as the currency of last resort on which other economies based their economic strength. It became the broker in all matters financial and enabled America to pull the economic strings when it wanted to. 
Trumps is the short sighted, short term view, so beloved by the Right Wing, where economics is based solely on winners and losers and the social implications of their actions come a long way second.
Will we rue the day when the Hotel Operator and Show Host, rode into town, like some old time Western and scared everyone to death with his bluster. Sitting propped up in bed he rules from his Twitter page, incisive  as a gossip columnist he casts around for things to take aim at, blessed as always in the overwhelming surety that he is always right.
We elected our own version of Trump in Boris Johnson, another person who ignores facts for his own bravado, who listens and is guided only by his ego and brooks no dissent.
Two peas in a pod and interestingly both raised in the Anglo American hot house value system where capitalism is seen on a par with religion, unanswerable to reason. 
The disillusionment of losing an empire prompts a Nero-esque madness and I think with these two so far off the scale, I'm afraid we will all suffer.

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