Tuesday 31 January 2017

One Nil to the pinstripes

  

Subject: One nil to the pinstripes.

Does the success of Donald Trump alter our attitude to Brexit.
The concept of Brexit was formed in a time when the conditions for world trade were much more settled. The force that is Donald had not yet been experienced and the sight of him belligerently breaking all kinds of business agreement, tossing into the waste basket much of what Obama has struggled to achieved, keen to have a slanging match with China and Europe, whilst propounding his faith in President Putin, the whole landscape has changed and perhaps our own view on Brexit also.
Whilst Theresa May jets her way across the Atlantic at this very moment do we not think trying to do a deal with Donald Trump will be anything but traumatic and we will, in the end pay a heavy price. Given our weak hand and his avowed aim to put American interests first will he not insist that American health based interests will have unfettered access to our NHS or that Monsanto be given the rights to impose their genetically altered seed and artificially grown beef onto our shelves in the supermarkets as a prerequisite to any deal. Is the waterboarding scenario the tip of the iceberg in how extreme and cavalier he will be. Perhaps we may well rue the day when we cast our backs on the coterie of bureaucratic suit's in Brussels.
I would think that Mrs May will have to take a long look at our prospects after having met him and if she doesn't like what she sees perhaps the pragmatic route would be to open up and be honest with us.  Is being out of the single market doable now, given the turmoil that a wild man in the White House can bring to world commerce.
It is a conflict of interest, which brings innovation head to head into conflict with regulation, the one pitted against the other, is it only a matter of this or that, one or the other. Do regulations signal something about the way we think and behave towards each other since regulations are there to protect us from certain types of innovation which we know can sometimes be very one sided.
And so in the aftermath of Brexit and now Trump, the world as we know it is in for a change as we 
swap the "steady as she goes" methodology of the Europeans, who, always have an eye to the consequences, especially the consequences to the individual within the electorate.
Raw capitalism has always had both "its" eyes on the bottom line and a profit and in Donald Trump the system has a messiah who punches well above his weight. 
Unforetold consequences are not part of his agenda, he sees things in black and white and if there are losers they better get out of the way now the 'big boy' is in town.
The Tories have also always been "regulation lite" the fewer the rules the clearer business can get on and do its own thing to make a profit. In mitigation, the argument was that the tax take would increased as the profits increased. The population would benefit with an increased tax take and better funded services. 
Sadly business, always one step ahead with the advent of the Global economy they can now chose their domicile to pay their tax and it's a win win for the pinstripes.

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