A Mongolian Emperor in waiting

 

Subject: A Mongolian Emperor in waiting. 

Are we seeing the result of the last American election, an election which kicked out the pacification policies of Obama and the Democratic for the hash reality of the right wing Tea Party politics which culminated with Donald Trumps success in winning the Presidency.

Hoping for a creative reasoned dialogue which signified the Obama Presidency seemed a  civilised way forward. Jaw jaw rather than War War. Talking and finding commonality between nations seems infinitely the better way to conduct international diplomacy and strangely this in a sense comes from the development of nuclear power and the impact of mass destruction. 

Anything was better than war, unless of course the finger on the button is the extension of a mind honed on ruthless negotiation in his business affairs which usually relied on his powerful financial position and a contempt for any sign of weakness from opponents.
Trumps posturing seems less of a posture and rather a position in which his blatant disregard for the art of diplomacy makes his method of decision making, reliant as it is on the might of American arms and seem straightforward in dealing with the "bad guys".
Obama was always full of optimistic hope that the bad guys were not altogether bad.
He shrank from decisive action when his red lines in Syria were breached when chemical weapons were first used by Assad against his own people and his weakness allowed Putin and Russia to move troops in to Syria and become the only power broker within the region.
It has been suggested that Trumps bellicose warnings to North Korea have made Kim Jong-un think twice about continuing their nuclear missile program, although I think the Chinese have played a crucial part since without Chinese economic support North Korea would crumble.
Any student of history would acknowledge the part conciliation plays, when the reparation for past deeds is not yielding the outcome you expect. In a world of equals, this counting the cost is sensible and we draw a line under what is in the common good.
In the period prior to the First World War the nation states of Europe saw themselves as equals and if not equal drew alliances to make themselves more so.
The combination of Teutonic states to make a nation, Germany tipped the balance in Europe, which lasts to this day but after the culmination of World War 1. with Germany ostensibly beaten but not outright defeated, the exhausted allies had had enough of the blood letting and decided not to pursue the German army onto its home territory and instead an 'armistice' was agreed whereby reparations in money and territory were exacted, the purpose to hobble the horse so it would never gallop again.
History tells us it didn't work and the seeds were sown for a National Socialist Government which garnered the ill content to strike and eventually forge the Nazi Party.
History reminds us that doing things in a half hearted fashion does not breed conciliation or thanks but rather the reverse.
The Treaty of Locarno and the formation of The League of Nations was the linchpin pin which held the national powers at bay between the World wars, it considered many things, placating some for the time being, kicking the can of repatriating German nationals living in land which Poland had claimed as part of reparations and which German public opinion never accepted. The alliances between France, Britain and to a lessor extent Italy, offsetting the Germans in a complicated set of treaties were a diplomatic masterpiece so long as the signatories were content. Time heals the bruises of conflict and memories fade on the bestiality of attritional warfare. The politicians eventually get into their stride, whipping up discontent to win votes and in no time at all all the high flown phraseology vested in the treaty document are as straw in a wind.
Trump is no diplomat. He sees things in black and white, good and bad, innocent and guilty, he has no time for the nuances of looking for conciliation through the recognition that we all need to win and so long as you can convince everyone that they have, in part at least won or, if nothing else, sat at the table then some sort of equanimity  can be reached. Trumps definition of putting "America first" defines his agenda and makes us all, if we have the sense to realise and understand, his is not a world of equals. His admiration of Putin is born of his craving to have the power Putin has without the restraint of party politics to hold him back. He is a Putin without the cold surety of a Mongolian emporor.